Hypothetical scenarios of the Russian- Ukrainian war: a two-sided dimension

  • Borys Demyanenko Doctor of Political science, Professor of the Department of Political Science, Deсan of the Faculty of History of the State Higher Educational Institution «Pereiaslav-Khmelnytskyі Hryhoriі Skovoroda State Pedagogical University»
Keywords: Russian-Ukrainian war; Ukrainian experts; expert environment; forecasts; scenarios; war scenarios.

Abstract

The forecasts of domestic experts on possible scenarios of the Russian-Ukrainian war in the East of Ukraine are arranged. Situational, predictable and short-term forecasts of experts are clarified, the most likely scenario of the Russian-Ukrainian war is determined. The next options have been identified as a possibly hypothetical scenarios for the development of the Russian-Ukrainian war: a

«total war» (the «war», envisaging a large-scale invasion of Russian troops using the whole arsenal of tactical weapons), «victory» (the establishment of the full control over the Ukrainian-Russian border by Ukrainian army and the restoration of peace in the East of Ukraine), «cutting off» («clipping off»,

«the wall», provides for the final abandonment of the occupied territories and a complete break with them), «satellite» (involves the search for ways to peace with the Russian Federation on favorable terms for it, recognition of the autonomy of the Donbas, refusal to return Crimea), «armistice» (suspension of hostilities with the placement of a peacekeeping contingent on the territory of the Donbas), «freezing» («conservation» of the conflict, cessation of hostilities without a peace agreement), «no war or peace» («limited war and permanent negotiations» or «destabilization» or «smoldering conflict»; provides for a limited and restraining war against the Russian Federation and its collaborators in the East of Ukraine in order to inflict them as much as possible demotivating losses; a permanent negotiation process, however, without definitively fixing the results in different arrangements and formats). The most likely scenario of the development of the Russian-Ukrainian war is «no war or peace» (the probability is 70- 80 %). Such a scenario is advantageous, first of all, for the Russian Federation and the USA in terms of realizing their geopolitical goals, for Ukraine it makes it possible to achieve maximum results with the smallest casualties and losses.

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Published
2018-03-15
How to Cite
Demyanenko, B. (2018). Hypothetical scenarios of the Russian- Ukrainian war: a two-sided dimension. HUMANITARIUM, 40(3), 57-66. Retrieved from https://humanitarium.com.ua/index.php/hum/article/view/440
Section
Philosophy